Week 1 CFB Bets
College football is back!! This is my happy place.
I want to start sharing more of the real-me aspects through this digital-me, until one day those walls will come down. I feel the same way about wanting to discuss legal issues in an audio format. I just don’t feel comfortable doing that yet, but can’t wait for the freedom! I have so many exciting things in mind once there. There are few things in life I am more passionate about than this sport. I am a Hurricane and so is my wife. We met there and went to school at the same time as the greatest team that ever played. I’ve followed the sport religiously since long before I was part of it. As a kid, it was largely a Sunday thing. Eagles were my squad and I loved football so much that I had my parents get me a tiny 1980s color TV with a giant fold-out antennae so I could catch games while we were out. I got dropped off at Pettibone’s to watch their satellite dish of all the games while gorging on a filet mignon buffet. I’m doing this at like 12 years-old. But part of the curriculum in Coral Gables is lifelong brainwashing into The U brotherhood. My life has been colored Orange and Green ever since. Those who love sports to the same level I do would probably enjoy this piece below. I’m going to work on Part II soon.
https://theojordan.substack.com/p/the-transcendence-of-sports
I love the games so much that I even love the games within the games. I play lots of fantasy and have followed sports lines since they were truly books. The world of sharps and setting lines was always fascinating to me. It truly is (was?) a science. They could land total basketball game scores within a few points, and do it consistently. The tools and analysis that went into that all in the Beforetimes when we didn’t all have access to information and still read stats in newspaper columns is just incredible! Of course, the world has completely changed now. The era of daily fantasy and AI searching. Moneylines shown on broadcasts and the ability to place prop bets on your phone. Crazy! But my love for the seedy underworld of sports has remained too. And that’s the nature of this place…
I’ve talked lines and sports bets with a group of buddies for decades now. A couple have lives that are connected to actual books; others are just weekend watchers who enjoy having a piece of action and the chatter which surrounds it. None of my close network gamble for anything other than fun. None of us are good enough. Lol never trust a gambler who isn’t humble! ;-) But some can do good on some seasons, and we manage to have a blast throughout everyone. It’s well worth the expense to me on entertainment value alone. As long as you have self-control. Gambling is a top unspoken crisis in our country right now. It is spreading everywhere! For better or for worse. But this ain’t the place for that tale!
What I want to do on Smoke Signals each week is offer a few thoughts on bets I like around the CFB slate. I’ll try and post it every week by Thursday morning, even if I’m not taking any early games. This isn’t some gimmick or some attempt to draw you into a paid-pick racket. I just love the sport, love the lines, love watching how they end, and truly enjoy all the discussion around it. I’m doing it here because I intend to fire this website back up now that I got my IRL stabilized after quite a professional cannonball last year. I envision this place becoming more active and want to use this domain to help bring down those digital/real walls. I’ll be posting my batch of top games each week and then tracking how we do at year’s end. I don’t claim to be an expert, so don’t tail me choices like I’m giving you secret knowledge. I am surely not. I’m sharing with you the top chatter each week and what I happen to think is going to cash. I’ll give my reasons why too as I rarely bet with my heart. I’d love to have you join in the discussion; that’s really my objective here, not to try and show off as some guru. I’d be eager to know what lines have your eye each week. I might even tail! To do that, I’ll drop a link to X under each one if you want to comment or add your own picks. If you convince me on any, I’ll add reference back here. Let’s do this…
It's a hell of a slate to kick things off! The games started last night with a ton of action. The bet that had most eyes was Wyoming, bouncing between -6 and -7. It ended up cashing, but I passed. A bet that only hits because of a 35yd TD pass with 4mins left is not one I need to be on. 10-0 on a TD spread is pretty rough; but hey, a cash is a cash! The pros had that one right.
I do like one tonight. I think the Yellow Jackets go up to Colorado and handle business pretty easily. GT should be solid this year. They return a legit QB, a couple strong skill players, a serviceable defense, and have abandoned their old archaic ways. But they still have a culture of being able to grind you down and control the clock once they’re ahead. I think that’s exactly what happens. On the other side, CU is just replacing too much. I’m not sure the were a very good team last year, and they didn’t reload what they lost. Take GT and buy it down to -3 as long as you’re not getting killed on the vig.
I’m high on Clemson this year. They return more veteran starting talent than anyone in the country and have all the parts. They’ve disappointed recently, but you can’t buy new tickets with old teams. On paper, this is a really good squad! I’m not sold that LSU is. Could they be? Sure. But there are a lot of moving parts in the other Death Valley. Add in the home field advantage and I like Clemson here a lot. But I don’t like them covering -4 and I don’t want to risk almost 2x money on a game they could certainly lose. So I’ll do what I often do and go unorthodox. I’ll pair the Clemson ML with the Bama ML and get Clemson to just win at almost regular cost. I don’t see Alabama losing that football game, even at Doak Campbell. This gets me a moneyline Clemson bet without the ML price.
Regarding Bama, most of my friends are taking the Tide-14. I get it. I was kind of sold on that too… until I had a conversation with a FSU die hard this morning over bagels. Lol do I still think there is a good chance Bama covers 2TDs? Yes. But not enough to get behind it. I don’t like covering big spreads as a practice, and FSU is going to have a bounce back eventually - that’s a when and not an if. I’d be stunned if they beat Alabama as I still think the Seminoles are going to have a lot of issues this year. But he talked me off getting behind the big line.
Lastly, and I may live to regret this one, I’m taking UNC at home on Monday night. This isn’t a bet against TCU as I think they’ll be decent this year. I wouldn’t bet it if the game had been in Texas. But Chapel Hill can get pretty gnarly when they’re excited, and the debut of Bill Belichick is going to have them rocking! I expect the Tarheels to play really amped up, feed off the crowd, and I think this brilliant football mind will pull out all the stops and tricks needed to make sure his first step in Carolina Blue is a good one. I would not want to travel there for this opener. I actually think UNC wins outright, but I’ll take the points instead of 1.5x money. It looks like you can still buy it to +4 at cost. I’ll take that!
Of course, my eyes will be fixed most on The Hard Rock this weekend. Catholics vs. Convicts 2025! The last time a top ten Notre Dame team came down to that place to face the Canes, this happened…
https://youtu.be/cRpyl_Up6Ro
I’ll be hoping for the same, but I won’t have any action on this game. Too much heart involved for me to see clearly there. Sadly, I think some holes in the Miami LB corps and secondary will be exposed this season and that could start Sunday. Game could go either way, but I’m jittery. Rarely do I bet on my squad, and this certainly won’t be one of those weeks. I hope we woodshed them again! The other big one is Texas and OSU, of course. That’s a coin flip all day to me. Would never want action on that game. I’ll take that one in happily as a fan.
WEEK 1 PICKS:
Georgia Tech-3 (-120)
Clemson ML/Alabama ML parlay (-115)
UNC+4 (-120)
Just those three this week. Though for what it’s worth, a Clemson ML/GT ML/Bama-13.5/UNC+4 parlay pays almost 7x. Lots of action for low entry and a shot at landing bankroll for the season start.
YTD 0-0. Fresh slate. Let’s go!!!
Join the discussion and share your thoughts on this week’s action:
https://x.com/Theo_TJ_Jordan/status/1961528994307936759