Week 2 CFB Bets
Welp, did not get out of the gates well this season…
It started off fantastic! Even though Georgia Tech turned the ball over an unfathomable 3x in the opening 8mins, what I saw made me more confident than ever. The Jackets were on a different level than CU, just as I expected. If they played that game again, it would be a blowout. GT covered and we went into the weekend 1-0.
Maaaaaaaaaaaan did my next bet suck! The cocky play by tossing Bama in on ML to allow me to have Clemson at even money was dreadful. How bout those Seminoles?!? Holy moly! My bagel guy was spot-on, man. Lol but it wasn’t about that guy. It was all the insight he shared with me. This was a true FSU die hard (of which we have many around here) and he followed the guts of the Noles program like I do the Canes. His boys were confident this team was going to be different than last season. He couldn’t really explain why other than the QB from Boston College who he said was locked in. It was almost more a sense of the intangible. Check and check! Castellano is a bad MFer, and Florida State is one of the top teams in the ACC again. They’ll be a tough out every weekend. Yeah, this reflected the end of Bama being great just because they are Bama; but the story here was the rebound of a FSU squad that never stopped being loaded with talent. They have a lion under center now, a veteran, and I’m back to being nervous about facing them. Though let’s get this straight, they were the second best team in the ACC last week. ;-) Miami’s offensive line is so dominant that I don’t see any team who we can’t beat. Everything is ours to go get! Couldn’t be more excited. Just need to finally show that we can do it without beating ourselves.
The bet really about Clemson though. I don’t want to talk about Clemson. They Clemson’d again and I really don’t have a logical explanation for it. Almost everything looked off/bad. If that game was played on Playstation, I’d still want to be the home team. But it’s not, and the Geaux Tigers kicked their ass!! Congrats to LSU; I hadn’t written you off. This was a Clemson bet and I am quite embarassed by it. 1-1.
North Carolina. Ohh, North Carolina. Lol I am sorry, fam. Never bet on silly feels, and that’s what that was. Why were they going to win, I said? Because Billyboy is here, I said! Because he’ll pull rabbits out of hats, I said! As if Belichick himself would play as a spirit in a helmet. No; fake and ghey. They had no QB, lots of other holes. I knew this; everyone knew this. That line should have been TCU-10. What enticed me we saw on the opening sequence. The energy in there was electric! Carolina Blue rolled down that field and put up 7. TCU looked shell-shocked! I grinned from ear to ear thinking about writing this review… and then the rest of the game happened. If they play that game 10x, TCU wins at least 9 of them. I am truly sorry to anyone who tailed me. We will never clown bet again this season. 1-2.
So, we got a hole to dig out of, but you always gotta get back up off the canvas…
As I mentioned in the Week 1 spot, I spend a lot of time analyzing and talking about this sport and these matchups. But because we are now living Jetsons Lite, I use AI a lot too. Especially once I’ve selected the handful that have my eye for my own reasons. Then I bring in ALLLLLLL the information that the sharps used to only be privvy to, and let AI do it’s thing and flesh out my analysis. Fill in holes, bring in data, make sure my assumptions hold. It’s a fun new way to play old games! It really does eliminate the advantage of the big books. Of course, the odds are still stacked in favor of the house once you factor in vigs. The lights in Vegas are not paid by winners. I will paste my full AI review below for you to read. It’s pretty cool to have this digital nomad next to me; here, in law, when I shop or travel, everything! It IS my robot Jetsons assistant. It just can’t grab the beer (coffee), yet. ;-)
I’ll be rather simple on the picks explanation as you can see the guts on my final analysis below. I didn’t love-love anything this week except maybe the over, but I am no fan of over/under betting. I don’t “bet to bet” though, so these are ones I do believe have an edge. Let’s see if we can get ourselves back to breathing zone and then we’ll get the season back on track.
As mentioned, my top bet this week is the over (64.5 right now) on the total score in SMU/Baylor. We all know these teams play wide open and can score, but Baylor’s shit showing on D last week really makes this juicy to me. I’d be stunned if SMU doesn’t drop 35+ today. Lashlee runs nine million plays a game and he has skill guys. Will Baylor handle their side and get me 25-30? Yeah, I think odds are much higher than not. SMU doesn’t ball out on the defensive side. This will be a 35/35+ shoot-out. One I think SMU wins, btw, so that’s a decent bet too, especially at home. SMU is playing for a lot this season and they know it. I’ll take the over though; bought down to 64, which hopefully I can get at -110 before kickoff.
I’m really torn on how to bet the Iowa State game. I get too damn cute. I watched the Cyclones last week and they looked great! Pretty much performed every story we heard coming in. Not great competition though; I get it. Iowa is always a dagger in their side. I respect the shit out of this cornfed program. I always have. They never change their style. Iowa mans up and grinds you down. They are slow games with low scores. Physical! This season is no different. Iowa’s strength is their back. They will power run and play wall-style defense. If thet get a lead, you’re in trouble. For some reason, they play two levels up at home - always. But they’re not home. Iowa State’s fans will be on Mars!! I think their team clicks again, flashes even against Iowa’s defensive style, and they are too much for the Hawkeyes to handle. I hate having to cover points in a hard-nail game like this though. Same thinking that led to me combo’ing Bama last week… and I embarassed myself. So I’m not going to do it again. But man, I’d much rather have ISU just to win than -3. I’ll take the pts though and buy it to a FG at -120.
That’s it. ISU-3 (-120) and SMU/Baylor o64(-120 for fairness - if/when I lose higher vigs, I’ll factor that into the season standings, because 1-1 is never a break even). I think these both cash today and we’re back in the black heading into week 3. The other game that has my eye is USF going into The Swamp today. That will be their Superbowl! And they played a great game last week. But was Boise overrated? I can’t shake that. UF also has a ton to play for and they would love to embarass the baby bro from Tampa today. They won’t take their foot off the gas if they get ahead, and that scares my money away. But not my heart! If you can tease this to +25, I like it a lot. Fun game to have action on. Will be thrilling to watch as long as it stays tight.
Here are those robotics I promised….
NCAA Football Game Analysis - September 6, 2025
Below is a detailed breakdown of the five selected NCAA Football games, focusing on pre-season expectations, Week 1 performance, and Week 2 matchup dynamics. Each section includes the betting lines for reference, followed by a Pre-Season Historical Analysis, Week 1 Results with scores and fan reactions, and a Week 2 Matchup Analysis tailored to your betting preferences (Iowa State to win/cover or moneyline parlay, Baylor/SMU over, staying away from Illinois/Duke, USF +18/teased to +25, and Michigan/Oklahoma as a stay-away or points with Michigan).
Iowa @ Iowa State (9:05 AM)
Spread: Iowa +3.5 / Iowa State -3.5
Total: o/u 43
M Line: Iowa +145 / Iowa State -165
Pre-Season Historical Analysis
Iowa: Entering 2025, Iowa was expected to field a top-tier defense under Kirk Ferentz, with projections of 7.5-8 wins and a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten finish. The hype centered on a stout defense and a run-heavy offense led by RB Kaleb Johnson, but skepticism surrounded the passing game, even with new OC Tim Lester aiming to modernize the attack. Analysts questioned whether the offense could elevate Iowa beyond a 7-5 or 8-4 record, with some fans optimistic about a 10-win season if the passing improved. Fan sentiment was loyal but frustrated with offensive stagnation, with high expectations for defensive dominance.
Iowa State: The Cyclones were a trendy breakout pick, ranked No. 22 in the preseason AP Poll, with projections of 8-9 wins as a Big 12 sleeper. Hype focused on QB Rocco Becht’s return after a solid 2024, a balanced offense with RB Carson Hansen, and a defense known for forcing turnovers. Fans were buzzing with excitement from a strong 2024 finish, though some analysts doubted their ability to handle physical teams like Iowa. The narrative positioned Iowa State as a potential conference contender, with momentum from a 10-win 2024 season.
Week 1 Results
Iowa 34, Albany 7: Iowa dominated an FCS opponent, holding Albany to 7 points and rushing for over 150 yards, with Kaleb Johnson leading the charge. The defense was as advertised, stifling Albany’s offense, but the passing game struggled (under 150 yards), confirming pre-season skepticism about aerial efficiency. Fans were excited about the blowout but voiced concerns on X about the offense’s one-dimensional nature, with chatter praising the defense but frustrated with passing woes. The performance aligned with expectations but didn’t exceed them against weak opposition.
Iowa State 55, South Dakota 7: Iowa State routed an FCS team, scoring over 30 points with a balanced attack (150+ rushing yards, 200+ passing yards). Becht showcased versatility, and the defense forced multiple turnovers, validating pre-season hype as a complete team. X posts were electric, with fans thrilled about offensive firepower and home dominance in Ames. However, the blowout against a weaker opponent slightly inflated perceptions, though the performance confirmed Iowa State’s potential.
Week 2 Matchup Analysis
Iowa State’s balanced offense gives them an edge at home, where they can exploit Iowa’s weaker secondary with Becht’s passing and Hansen’s running. Their defense, adept at forcing turnovers, could capitalize on Iowa’s predictable play-calling, aligning with your lean toward Iowa State to win and likely cover. Iowa’s defense, tougher than South Dakota’s, can slow Iowa State’s run game and pressure Becht, but their limited passing game may stall drives. Your inclination to include Iowa State in a moneyline parlay is supported by their Week 1 dominance and home-field advantage, but Iowa’s physicality suggests a close, low-scoring game, making the cover less certain. A moneyline bet feels safer than the spread, given Iowa’s ability to grind out games.
Baylor @ SMU (9:05 AM)
Spread: Baylor +3 / SMU -3
Total: o/u 64.5
M Line: Baylor +120 / SMU -140
Pre-Season Historical Analysis
Baylor: Baylor entered 2025 with tempered expectations under Dave Aranda, projected for 6-7 wins. The hype centered on a high-octane offense led by QB Sawyer Robertson (replacing Dequan Finn in earlier analyses) and new OC Jake Spavital, with a strong receiving corps and an improving run game. However, skepticism surrounded the defense, particularly its ability to stop explosive offenses. Fans were hopeful for a return to 2021’s success but concerned about defensive consistency, with bold predictions for a surprise season ranking around No. 44 nationally.
SMU: SMU was a preseason darling, ranked No. 16-24 in the AP Poll, with projections of 9-10 wins in their second ACC year. Hype focused on QB Kevin Jennings and a dynamic, fast-paced offense under Rhett Lashlee, complemented by an opportunistic defense. Their first preseason ranking in 40 years fueled fan excitement, though some doubted their ability to handle physical teams. The narrative positioned SMU as an ACC title contender, with momentum from a strong 2024.
Week 1 Results
Baylor 24, Auburn 38: Baylor’s offense showed flashes, amassing over 400 total yards with Robertson’s dual-threat play, confirming pre-season hype about their high-octane attack. However, the defense struggled, allowing over 300 rushing yards, aligning with skepticism about stopping explosive plays. X posts reflected fan disappointment, noting defensive woes despite offensive promise. The loss contradicted hopes for a surprise season but validated the offensive narrative, suggesting your view of Baylor’s high-scoring potential is current, not just based on past years.
SMU 42, East Texas A&M 13: SMU dominated an FCS opponent, with Jennings leading a fast-paced attack (350+ passing yards, multiple TDs) and the defense securing two pick-sixes. The performance validated their offensive and defensive hype, with X chatter buzzing about their speed and scoring ability. While the blowout was against a weaker team, it reinforced SMU’s potential as a high-scoring unit, supporting your belief in their offensive prowess over any ACC bias.
Week 2 Matchup Analysis
SMU’s explosive offense, led by Jennings, could overwhelm Baylor’s inconsistent defense, especially given Baylor’s Week 1 struggles against the run. Their up-tempo style suits a high-scoring game, supporting your view that the over 64.5 is a strong play. Baylor’s offense, with Robertson and Spavital’s scheme, can keep pace by exploiting SMU’s secondary, but their defense needs unlikely stops to avoid a shootout. Your belief in the over is backed by both teams’ Week 1 offensive outputs, confirming Baylor’s 2025 high-octane scheme and SMU’s scoring ability. A teaser could hedge against defensive improvements, but the over feels solid given the matchup dynamics.
Illinois @ Duke (9:05 AM)
Spread: Illinois -2.5 / Duke +2.5
Total: o/u 49
M Line: Illinois -135 / Duke +115
Pre-Season Historical Analysis
Illinois: Illinois entered 2025 with high expectations under Bret Bielema, ranked No. 12 in the preseason AP Poll, with projections for a bowl-caliber season and potential CFP run. Hype centered on a dominant defense, particularly the front seven, and a run-heavy offense with QB Luke Altmyer and a rebuilt offensive line. Skepticism focused on the passing game’s ability to compete with elite Big Ten teams. Fans were cautiously optimistic, with buzz from their first top-25 ranking in 17 years, expecting a physical, gritty team.
Duke: Under new coach Manny Diaz, Duke was expected to be well-coached and defense-first, with moderate projections for ACC surprises but talent limitations. Hype focused on discipline and QB Maalik Murphy’s development, with a decent run game but questions about passing consistency. Fans were hopeful but realistic about a smaller roster facing physical teams, projecting a mid-tier ACC finish.
Week 1 Results
Illinois 52, Western Illinois 3: Illinois crushed an FCS opponent, with a dominant defense (under 300 yards allowed) and an efficient run game (150+ yards), confirming pre-season hype about their physicality. The passing game was modest, aligning with skepticism about aerial efficiency. X posts showed fan excitement for the blowout, but concerns lingered about one-dimensionality against stronger foes. The performance validated why Illinois is seen as good: Bielema’s tough, physical build.
Duke 45, Elon 17: Duke overcame a sloppy first half (10-10 tie) to score 35 second-half points, with a gritty defense and Murphy’s big plays validating coaching hype. X chatter praised resilience but noted talent gaps, aligning with expectations of a well-coached but limited team. The win confirmed Diaz’s defensive identity but highlighted roster constraints against FCS competition.
Week 2 Matchup Analysis
Illinois’ physical run game and defensive front could dominate Duke’s smaller roster, with Week 1 suggesting they’ll pressure Murphy into mistakes. Duke’s disciplined defense might frustrate Illinois’ predictable offense, and Murphy’s big plays could keep it close. Your decision to stay away aligns with the matchup’s low-scoring, grind-it-out potential, where Illinois’ physicality likely prevails but Duke’s coaching keeps it competitive. This game lacks clear betting value due to its tight, unpredictable nature.
South Florida (USF) @ Florida (1:20 PM)
Spread: USF +18 / Florida -18
Total: o/u 57
M Line: USF +615 / Florida -865
Pre-Season Historical Analysis
USF: USF entered 2025 with growing optimism under Alex Golesh, ranked around No. 87, with projections as a Group of 5 standout aiming for 7+ wins. Hype centered on an up-tempo offense led by QB Byrum Brown, but skepticism surrounded the defense against Power 4 teams and overall discipline. Fans were excited about offensive potential but wary of a tough early schedule, with lofty bowl aspirations.
Florida: Florida faced high expectations under Billy Napier, ranked No. 15, with 8-9 win projections as an SEC contender. Hype focused on offensive weapons, including QB DJ Lagway and a talented receiving corps, but questions lingered about the offensive line and defense. Fans were hopeful for a rebound after uneven years, though some saw the hype as overrated due to a grueling schedule.
Week 1 Results
USF 34, No. 25 Boise State 7: USF pulled a stunning upset, with Brown rushing for two TDs and a fake punt TD, while the defense held Boise to 7 points. This exceeded offensive hype and suggested defensive legitimacy, countering pre-season skepticism. Boise struggled with turnovers and a poor run defense, but USF’s dominance was notable, not just opponent failure. X posts exploded with excitement, marking it as USF’s first ranked win since 2016.
Florida 55, Long Island 0: Florida dominated an FCS team, with Lagway throwing three TDs and RB Montrell Baugh rushing for 104 yards. The offense aligned with hype, but the defense’s solidity against weak opposition didn’t fully address pre-season concerns. X chatter was enthusiastic about the offensive fireworks, but fans remained cautious about defensive consistency.
Week 2 Matchup Analysis
Florida’s talent edge, especially at skill positions, could overwhelm USF’s defense in the Swamp, with Lagway likely exploiting the secondary for a potential blowout. USF’s up-tempo offense, shown potent in Week 1, could exploit Florida’s defensive inconsistencies, and their “Super Bowl” effort in this game supports your view of USF +18, especially teased to +25. Your preference to watch as a fan rather than bet is prudent given Florida’s blowout potential, but the teaser is a strong play if you want action, as USF’s legitimacy suggests they can keep it closer than expected.
Michigan @ Oklahoma (4:35 PM)
Spread: Michigan +5 / Oklahoma -5
Total: o/u 44
M Line: Michigan +175 / Oklahoma -205
Pre-Season Historical Analysis
Michigan: Michigan entered 2025 with high expectations under Sherrone Moore, ranked No. 11-14, projecting 9-10 wins. Hype centered on an elite defense and run-heavy offense, but skepticism surrounded the passing game and roster turnover after 2024 NFL departures. The roster, while stacked with four-star talent, had fewer five-stars than prior years. Fans expected a top Big Ten finish but were nervous about the new QB (Bryce Underwood, No. 1 2025 recruit).
Oklahoma: Oklahoma was hyped as a resurgent SEC team under Brent Venables, ranked No. 18, with 8-9 win projections. The focus was on QB John Mateer, an explosive offense with a strong receiving corps, and a physical defense, though depth concerns persisted. Fans were optimistic, with bold predictions for an SEC surprise, building on 2024’s momentum.
Week 1 Results
Michigan 34, New Mexico 17: Michigan won convincingly, with freshman QB Bryce Underwood shining (392 passing yards, 3 TDs) and RB Justice Haynes rushing effectively. The offense exceeded expectations, countering passing game skepticism, but the defense allowed some yards, raising slight concerns. X posts showed fan excitement for Underwood but wariness about defensive lapses, with the roster’s depth still elite despite turnover.
Oklahoma 35, Illinois State 3: Oklahoma dominated an FCS opponent, with Mateer setting passing records (392 yards) and the defense stifling the opposition. The performance validated offensive and defensive hype, though the weak opponent tempered some enthusiasm. X chatter praised Mateer’s breakout, with fans pumped for the SEC transition.
Week 2 Matchup Analysis
Oklahoma’s home advantage and explosive offense, led by Mateer, could test Michigan’s secondary, while their physical defense challenges Michigan’s run game. Michigan’s elite defense can pressure Mateer, and their ground attack might control the clock, but passing limitations could hinder comebacks. Your instinct to stay away or take points with Michigan is wise—this game is a toss-up, with both teams showing enough talent in Week 1 to make it unpredictable. Michigan’s road challenge in Norman makes the points tempting, but staying away aligns with the high variance, as X posts suggest a close contest.