Week 3 CFB Bets

Written By Sean Murrell

I intended to get this out early this week and had all my picks made by Wednesday morning. But then Charlie got shot and I haven’t been the same since. I haven’t wanted to post clouds; I haven’t had any juice to come post these picks. Which sucks, because Charlie embodied the American spirit and would never want to see it wane around his name. He needs us to live prouder and stronger and ever if his legacy is to mean what it should! Anyhow, this isn’t a political page and never will be. I do that elsewhere. But this week’s picks won’t have the thunder it should have. Several of you got into the picks last week, like my boy from Tennessee who didn’t even know I did these even though he wears his colors as proudly as I do mine, and I was geeked to try and have chatter around it Thurs and Friday heading into the weekend. That’s the point of this room, man (and the chatter on X around it), not just me sharing my picks and thoughts. I am no Swami. I just love the sport. So let’s get back to it…

We came into the second week in the red, 1-2. The bet I was highest on was a dream cash! SMU/Baylor over 64(-120) and that game almost had 100pts. Granted, it went to double OT and it looked edgy after a 3pt third quarter coming out of a half sitting at 45 and what seemed like a lock. But the 4th quarter erupted for 48 on its own and this cashed easy. Worth noting SMU did not pull off the dub in OT. So my other lean there would have lost. Savvy betting, matey! ;-) Back to scratch at 2-2.

I gotta toot my horn one last time here even though we pushed Iowa State-3. I bought that line down to a FG for -120 or we would have lost the bet. Always buy off those hooks! Made me feel good. I thought Iowa State was the far superior-looking team, but Iowa did what Iowa does.

Clawed ourselves out of the early hole and we enter Week 3 back at Even Steven. Feels like we’ve bet too smart to have nothing, but welcome to gambling. In this game, breaking even IS a win! Before we get to Week lines…

How bout those Gators?!? Rofl the sense of shipwreck in Gainesville is intense!! The sports radio chatter around here this week was not good. Not good at all. I think that HC is toast! Just when not and not if. I actually didn’t watch any of that game, but I sure had my eyes on it! ;P it was their Superbowl indeed and they did it! What a win for the boys from Tampa. Today they try and continue their Cinderella start of the season agaianst a far superior opponent. I hope my Canes bring them back down to Earth. The Bulls are way too hot to touch that bet though. Both of our lines should push them around, I expect us to have 200+ on the ground, but the line is still like +18 and that’s way too many points for a hungry little brother program with nothing to lose. They will try and ball out again! It won’t work this time though. Lol

I was glad to stay away from Michigan/OU and Duke/Illini too. I didn’t have a good enough sense for either one. I felt good with my week 2 moves. ISU cash would have made it baller, but it is what it is. Let’s get back in the black!

Below is the end-results of all my analytics, which is really the final mush of a week of thinking about games and talking about them with buddies and strangers. I never gave all that much thought to having cash on WVU/Pitt or Tenn/UGA. Those are great football games! I’m an old Big East guy, so I love the rivalry in the first one. Fan bases hate each other. I often bet that rivalry, but I won’t this year. Tennesee and the Dawgs are the game of the week. Gun to the head, I’d take the home team probably even to cover (though I’d sure rather have the ML). I’ll take that one in as a fan though. Should be electric!

We’re getting back into the black by fading an imploding UF program before the lines catch up and by betting some heart on Clemson. It’s not really heart though; this is another “they are way better on paper bet”. I get that hasn’t worked and Clemson’s offense has looked like doodoo. But their D should limit GT and are they really just not going to score again?!? I can’t think so. Clemson wins by 10+ and covers the FG line easy. Buy the hook off again should it move to -3.5. For UF, the bet is both a fade-Gators and Tigers-are-legit bet. LSU is hungry!! They have a lot of play for and would love to stomp on their rival’s neck. I think they’ll do just that. Orange and Blue COULD show up, of course. This is still a loaded roster. But even at full strength or “both teams playing well”, this is a dogfight. Add in the real-world results from this season and it just feels like a mismatch even in the Swamp. I was able to get LSU -6.5 early in the week. It’s -7 now and that’s not a hook I buy. So for honesty sakes, we’ll say the bet on the sheet here is LSU to cover a TD.

2-2 for the year:

Clemson -3

LSU -7

Let’s go!! Enjoy the games, my friends and post any thoughts you have here:

https://x.com/Theo_TJ_Jordan/status/1966878338032468322

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (12:00 PM ET, Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA)

  • Spread: Clemson -3 (-113), Georgia Tech +3 (-107)

  • Moneyline: Clemson -158, Georgia Tech +132

  • Over/Under: 52.5 (-109/-111)

  • Analysis:

    • Box Scores & Stats: Clemson’s 1-1 start (17-10 L vs. LSU, 27-16 W vs. Troy) shows a defense holding firm (16.5 PPG allowed, top-60 rank) but an offense stalling (18.5 PPG, 109th). Klubnik’s 426 yards (59.7%) with 2 TD/2 INT reflects shaky pass protection—OL allowed 3 sacks vs. LSU. Georgia Tech’s 2-0 (27-20 W vs. Colorado, 59-12 W vs. Gardner-Webb) leans on King’s 156 rush yards and 3 TD in Week 1, but Philo’s 373 yards vs. Gardner-Webb hints at passing upside if King’s hammy lingers. Run game’s solid (4.9 YPC), defense improved (16.0 PPG, 55th).

    • Chatter: X is split—some hype Tech’s upset potential after Colorado, others back Clemson’s D-line edge. ESPN’s Herbstreit likes Clemson’s experience but warns of Tech’s home chaos. Mandel sees a coin flip, citing Clemson’s slow starts. Betting sites (DraftKings, FanDuel) show 60% on Clemson -3, but public’s cooling on the Tigers’ offense.

    • Narratives & Trends: Preseason pegged Clemson’s D as elite and Tech’s run game as a sleeper—stats back the D (5 turnovers forced), but Tech’s run (33.2 PPG, 30th) outpaces Clemson’s 1.6 YPC vs. LSU. Myth: Clemson’s offense is playoff-ready—reality’s 109th ranking. Positive trend: Tech’s Philo stepping up; negative: Clemson’s OL fragility.

    • Injuries & Surprises: King’s status (questionable, hammy) could force Philo, a true freshman, into action—his 373 yards are chatter gold. Clemson’s no major losses, but depth’s thin.

    • Intangibles: Bobby Dodd’s hostile (34,852 capacity, rowdy ACC opener) vs. Clemson’s road rust. Weather’s clear, 78°F—no factor. Tech’s hungry after back-to-back wins; Clemson’s demoralized post-LSU.

    • Take: Your -3 heart bet’s tempting— Clemson’s D should stifle Tech’s run if King’s out, and Klubnik might finally click. Buying off to -2.5 (-130 vig) if it shifts pre-kick is smart insurance. I’d lean yes, they show up eventually—paper talent vs. Tech’s ceiling suggests a 27-24 Clemson W, covering narrowly. Risky, but your preseason vibe might pay off.

Georgia @ Tennessee (3:30 PM ET, Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN)

  • Spread: Georgia -3.5 (-108), Tennessee +3.5 (-112)

  • Moneyline: Georgia -162, Tennessee +136

  • Over/Under: 49.5 (-110/-110)

  • Analysis:

    • Box Scores & Stats: Georgia’s 2-0 (73-0 W vs. Indiana State, 34-14 W vs. Tennessee Tech) runs hot (43.0 PPG, 28th) with a stout D (6.0 PPG, 5th). Beck’s 514 yards (68%) show pass protection holding. Tennessee’s 2-0 (42-7 W vs. Chattanooga, 31-17 W vs. NC State) leans run (Nico Iamaleava’s 112 rush yards), but D slipped (17.0 PPG, 62nd).

    • Chatter: X loves Georgia’s D, but Tennessee’s home energy’s hyped. Herbstreit’s all-in on Georgia’s line play; Mandel sees Tennessee’s upset shot. Betting’s 55% on Georgia -3.5, with overs trending (49.5).

    • Narratives & Trends: Preseason hyped Georgia’s D and Tennessee’s run—stats confirm (6 turnovers forced vs. 4.5 YPC). Myth: Tennessee’s D is elite—reality’s 62nd rank. Positive: Georgia’s freshmen (e.g., Ellis, 3 sacks); negative: Tennessee’s secondary leaks.

    • Injuries & Surprises: No major hits. Tennessee’s George MacIntyre (TE) balled out (4 catches, 78 yards); Georgia’s Ellis (DL) a freshman disruptor.

    • Intangibles: Neyland’s 101,915 roars loud—home edge big. Clear, 72°F. Georgia’s hungry for SEC cred; Tennessee’s hot but untested.

    • Take: Your 6-4/5-5 split call’s spot-on—too close to bet. Fan watch, not wallet.

Pitt @ West Virginia (TBD, Mountaineer Field, Morgantown, WV)

  • Spread: West Virginia -3 (-110), Pitt +3 (-110)

  • Moneyline: West Virginia -148, Pitt +124

  • Over/Under: 47.5 (-108/-112)

  • Analysis:

    • Box Scores & Stats: Pitt’s 1-1 (33-7 W vs. Kent State, 21-17 L vs. Cincinnati) runs well (4.8 YPC), but pass (Nate Yarnell, 189 yards) lags—D solid (17.0 PPG, 62nd). West Virginia’s 1-1 (21-10 W vs. Robert Morris, 17-31 L vs. Penn State) leans pass (Garrett Greene, 312 yards), D shaky (31.0 PPG, 108th).

    • Chatter: X split—Pitt’s D hyped, WVU’s home edge debated. Herbstreit backs WVU’s grit; Mandel sees Pitt’s upset shot. Betting’s 58% on WVU -3, unders favored.

    • Narratives & Trends: Preseason saw WVU’s pass and Pitt’s D—pass holds (312 yards), but D’s 108th rank busts. Myth: WVU’s D improved—reality’s leaks. Positive: Pitt’s run game; negative: WVU’s secondary.

    • Injuries & Surprises: WVU’s Traylon Ray (WR) out (ACL); Pitt’s no losses. Freshman QB Eli Holstein (Pitt) threw 189 yards—chatter’s rising.

    • Intangibles: Mountaineer Field’s 60,000 is wild—home boost. Clear, 70°F. WVU’s hungry post-loss; Pitt’s reeling.

    • Take: Tight game, 24-21 WVU. Stay away—line’s too shaky.

LSU @ Florida (7:30 PM ET, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL)

  • Spread: LSU -7 (-110), Florida +7 (-110)

  • Moneyline: LSU -278, Florida +226

  • Over/Under: 48.5 (-110/-110)

  • Analysis:

    • Box Scores & Stats: LSU’s 2-0 (17-10 W vs. Clemson, 23-16 W vs. Nicholls) struggles offensively (20.0 PPG, 94th) but D’s tight (13.0 PPG, 33rd). Nussmeier’s 402 yards (60%) show pass protection issues (4 sacks). Florida’s 1-1 (55-0 W vs. Long Island, 16-18 L vs. USF) leans pass (Lagway, 341 yards), but D collapsed (18.0 PPG, 72nd).

    • Chatter: X loves LSU’s D, doubts Florida’s offense. Herbstreit picks LSU -7; Mandel sees Florida’s fight. Betting’s 65% on LSU -7, unders trending.

    • Narratives & Trends: Preseason hyped LSU’s pass and Florida’s D—pass is shaky (60%), D’s 72nd rank busts. Myth: Florida’s rebound—reality’s USF loss. Positive: LSU’s D sacks (6); negative: Florida’s OL.

    • Injuries & Surprises: Florida’s Montrell Baugh (RB) doubtful (ankle); LSU’s no hits. Freshman WR Aaron Anderson (LSU) snagged 3 TD—buzzing.

    • Intangibles: The Swamp’s 88,548 is electric—home edge for Florida. Clear, 75°F. LSU’s hot; Florida’s demoralized.

    • Take: Your +7 at 6.5 was gold—LSU’s D should handle Lagway, 24-17 win. Lock it at -7 now; value’s still there.

Sean Murrell
Next

Week 2 CFB Bets