Week 3 CFB Bets

I intended to get this out early this week and had all my picks made by Wednesday morning. But then Charlie got shot and I haven’t been the same since. I haven’t wanted to post clouds; I haven’t had any juice to come post these picks. Which sucks, because Charlie embodied the American spirit and would never want to see it wane around his name. He needs us to live prouder and stronger and ever if his legacy is to mean what it should! Anyhow, this isn’t a political page and never will be. I do that elsewhere. But this week’s picks won’t have the thunder it should have. Several of you got into the picks last week, like my boy from Tennessee who didn’t even know I did these even though he wears his colors as proudly as I do mine, and I was geeked to try and have chatter around it Thurs and Friday heading into the weekend. That’s the point of this room, man (and the chatter on X around it), not just me sharing my picks and thoughts. I am no Swami. I just love the sport. So let’s get back to it…

We came into the second week in the red, 1-2. The bet I was highest on was a dream cash! SMU/Baylor over 64(-120) and that game almost had 100pts. Granted, it went to double OT and it looked edgy after a 3pt third quarter coming out of a half sitting at 45 and what seemed like a lock. But the 4th quarter erupted for 48 on its own and this cashed easy. Worth noting SMU did not pull off the dub in OT. So my other lean there would have lost. Savvy betting, matey! ;-) Back to scratch at 2-2.

I gotta toot my horn one last time here even though we pushed Iowa State-3. I bought that line down to a FG for -120 or we would have lost the bet. Always buy off those hooks! Made me feel good. I thought Iowa State was the far superior-looking team, but Iowa did what Iowa does.

Clawed ourselves out of the early hole and we enter Week 3 back at Even Steven. Feels like we’ve bet too smart to have nothing, but welcome to gambling. In this game, breaking even IS a win! Before we get to Week lines…

How bout those Gators?!? Rofl the sense of shipwreck in Gainesville is intense!! The sports radio chatter around here this week was not good. Not good at all. I think that HC is toast! Just when not and not if. I actually didn’t watch any of that game, but I sure had my eyes on it! ;P it was their Superbowl indeed and they did it! What a win for the boys from Tampa. Today they try and continue their Cinderella start of the season agaianst a far superior opponent. I hope my Canes bring them back down to Earth. The Bulls are way too hot to touch that bet though. Both of our lines should push them around, I expect us to have 200+ on the ground, but the line is still like +18 and that’s way too many points for a hungry little brother program with nothing to lose. They will try and ball out again! It won’t work this time though. Lol

I was glad to stay away from Michigan/OU and Duke/Illini too. I didn’t have a good enough sense for either one. I felt good with my week 2 moves. ISU cash would have made it baller, but it is what it is. Let’s get back in the black!

Below is the end-results of all my analytics, which is really the final mush of a week of thinking about games and talking about them with buddies and strangers. I never gave all that much thought to having cash on WVU/Pitt or Tenn/UGA. Those are great football games! I’m an old Big East guy, so I love the rivalry in the first one. Fan bases hate each other. I often bet that rivalry, but I won’t this year. Tennesee and the Dawgs are the game of the week. Gun to the head, I’d take the home team probably even to cover (though I’d sure rather have the ML). I’ll take that one in as a fan though. Should be electric!

We’re getting back into the black by fading an imploding UF program before the lines catch up and by betting some heart on Clemson. It’s not really heart though; this is another “they are way better on paper bet”. I get that hasn’t worked and Clemson’s offense has looked like doodoo. But their D should limit GT and are they really just not going to score again?!? I can’t think so. Clemson wins by 10+ and covers the FG line easy. Buy the hook off again should it move to -3.5. For UF, the bet is both a fade-Gators and Tigers-are-legit bet. LSU is hungry!! They have a lot of play for and would love to stomp on their rival’s neck. I think they’ll do just that. Orange and Blue COULD show up, of course. This is still a loaded roster. But even at full strength or “both teams playing well”, this is a dogfight. Add in the real-world results from this season and it just feels like a mismatch even in the Swamp. I was able to get LSU -6.5 early in the week. It’s -7 now and that’s not a hook I buy. So for honesty sakes, we’ll say the bet on the sheet here is LSU to cover a TD.

2-2 for the year:

Clemson -3

LSU -7

Let’s go!! Enjoy the games, my friends and post any thoughts you have here:

https://x.com/Theo_TJ_Jordan/status/1966878338032468322

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (12:00 PM ET, Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA)

• Spread: Clemson -3 (-113), Georgia Tech +3 (-107)

• Moneyline: Clemson -158, Georgia Tech +132

• Over/Under: 52.5 (-109/-111)

• Analysis:

  • Box Scores & Stats: Clemson’s 1-1 start (17-10 L vs. LSU, 27-16 W vs. Troy) shows a defense holding firm (16.5 PPG allowed, top-60 rank) but an offense stalling (18.5 PPG, 109th). Klubnik’s 426 yards (59.7%) with 2 TD/2 INT reflects shaky pass protection—OL allowed 3 sacks vs. LSU. Georgia Tech’s 2-0 (27-20 W vs. Colorado, 59-12 W vs. Gardner-Webb) leans on King’s 156 rush yards and 3 TD in Week 1, but Philo’s 373 yards vs. Gardner-Webb hints at passing upside if King’s hammy lingers. Run game’s solid (4.9 YPC), defense improved (16.0 PPG, 55th).

  • Chatter: X is split—some hype Tech’s upset potential after Colorado, others back Clemson’s D-line edge. ESPN’s Herbstreit likes Clemson’s experience but warns of Tech’s home chaos. Mandel sees a coin flip, citing Clemson’s slow starts. Betting sites (DraftKings, FanDuel) show 60% on Clemson -3, but public’s cooling on the Tigers’ offense.

  • Narratives & Trends: Preseason pegged Clemson’s D as elite and Tech’s run game as a sleeper—stats back the D (5 turnovers forced), but Tech’s run (33.2 PPG, 30th) outpaces Clemson’s 1.6 YPC vs. LSU. Myth: Clemson’s offense is playoff-ready—reality’s 109th ranking. Positive trend: Tech’s Philo stepping up; negative: Clemson’s OL fragility.

  • Injuries & Surprises: King’s status (questionable, hammy) could force Philo, a true freshman, into action—his 373 yards are chatter gold. Clemson’s no major losses, but depth’s thin.

  • Intangibles: Bobby Dodd’s hostile (34,852 capacity, rowdy ACC opener) vs. Clemson’s road rust. Weather’s clear, 78°F—no factor. Tech’s hungry after back-to-back wins; Clemson’s demoralized post-LSU.

  • Take: Your -3 heart bet’s tempting— Clemson’s D should stifle Tech’s run if King’s out, and Klubnik might finally click. Buying off to -2.5 (-130 vig) if it shifts pre-kick is smart insurance. I’d lean yes, they show up eventually—paper talent vs. Tech’s ceiling suggests a 27-24 Clemson W, covering narrowly. Risky, but your preseason vibe might pay off.

Georgia @ Tennessee (3:30 PM ET, Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN)

• Spread: Georgia -3.5 (-108), Tennessee +3.5 (-112)

• Moneyline: Georgia -162, Tennessee +136

• Over/Under: 49.5 (-110/-110)

• Analysis:

  • Box Scores & Stats: Georgia’s 2-0 (73-0 W vs. Indiana State, 34-14 W vs. Tennessee Tech) runs hot (43.0 PPG, 28th) with a stout D (6.0 PPG, 5th). Beck’s 514 yards (68%) show pass protection holding. Tennessee’s 2-0 (42-7 W vs. Chattanooga, 31-17 W vs. NC State) leans run (Nico Iamaleava’s 112 rush yards), but D slipped (17.0 PPG, 62nd).

  • Chatter: X loves Georgia’s D, but Tennessee’s home energy’s hyped. Herbstreit’s all-in on Georgia’s line play; Mandel sees Tennessee’s upset shot. Betting’s 55% on Georgia -3.5, with overs trending (49.5).

  • Narratives & Trends: Preseason hyped Georgia’s D and Tennessee’s run—stats confirm (6 turnovers forced vs. 4.5 YPC). Myth: Tennessee’s D is elite—reality’s 62nd rank. Positive: Georgia’s freshmen (e.g., Ellis, 3 sacks); negative: Tennessee’s secondary leaks.

  • Injuries & Surprises: No major hits. Tennessee’s George MacIntyre (TE) balled out (4 catches, 78 yards); Georgia’s Ellis (DL) a freshman disruptor.

  • Intangibles: Neyland’s 101,915 roars loud—home edge big. Clear, 72°F. Georgia’s hungry for SEC cred; Tennessee’s hot but untested.

  • Take: Your 6-4/5-5 split call’s spot-on—too close to bet. Fan watch, not wallet.

Pitt @ West Virginia (TBD, Mountaineer Field, Morgantown, WV)

• Spread: West Virginia -3 (-110), Pitt +3 (-110)

• Moneyline: West Virginia -148, Pitt +124

• Over/Under: 47.5 (-108/-112)

• Analysis:

  • Box Scores & Stats: Pitt’s 1-1 (33-7 W vs. Kent State, 21-17 L vs. Cincinnati) runs well (4.8 YPC), but pass (Nate Yarnell, 189 yards) lags—D solid (17.0 PPG, 62nd). West Virginia’s 1-1 (21-10 W vs. Robert Morris, 17-31 L vs. Penn State) leans pass (Garrett Greene, 312 yards), D shaky (31.0 PPG, 108th).

  • Chatter: X split—Pitt’s D hyped, WVU’s home edge debated. Herbstreit backs WVU’s grit; Mandel sees Pitt’s upset shot. Betting’s 58% on WVU -3, unders favored.

  • Narratives & Trends: Preseason saw WVU’s pass and Pitt’s D—pass holds (312 yards), but D’s 108th rank busts. Myth: WVU’s D improved—reality’s leaks. Positive: Pitt’s run game; negative: WVU’s secondary.

  • Injuries & Surprises: WVU’s Traylon Ray (WR) out (ACL); Pitt’s no losses. Freshman QB Eli Holstein (Pitt) threw 189 yards—chatter’s rising.

  • Intangibles: Mountaineer Field’s 60,000 is wild—home boost. Clear, 70°F. WVU’s hungry post-loss; Pitt’s reeling.

  • Take: Tight game, 24-21 WVU. Stay away—line’s too shaky.

LSU @ Florida (7:30 PM ET, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL)

• Spread: LSU -7 (-110), Florida +7 (-110)

• Moneyline: LSU -278, Florida +226

• Over/Under: 48.5 (-110/-110)

• Analysis:

  • Box Scores & Stats: LSU’s 2-0 (17-10 W vs. Clemson, 23-16 W vs. Nicholls) struggles offensively (20.0 PPG, 94th) but D’s tight (13.0 PPG, 33rd). Nussmeier’s 402 yards (60%) show pass protection issues (4 sacks). Florida’s 1-1 (55-0 W vs. Long Island, 16-18 L vs. USF) leans pass (Lagway, 341 yards), but D collapsed (18.0 PPG, 72nd).

  • Chatter: X loves LSU’s D, doubts Florida’s offense. Herbstreit picks LSU -7; Mandel sees Florida’s fight. Betting’s 65% on LSU -7, unders trending.

  • Narratives & Trends: Preseason hyped LSU’s pass and Florida’s D—pass is shaky (60%), D’s 72nd rank busts. Myth: Florida’s rebound—reality’s USF loss. Positive: LSU’s D sacks (6); negative: Florida’s OL.

  • Injuries & Surprises: Florida’s Montrell Baugh (RB) doubtful (ankle); LSU’s no hits. Freshman WR Aaron Anderson (LSU) snagged 3 TD—buzzing.

  • Intangibles: The Swamp’s 88,548 is electric—home edge for Florida. Clear, 75°F. LSU’s hot; Florida’s demoralized.

  • Take: Your +7 at 6.5 was gold—LSU’s D should handle Lagway, 24-17 win. Lock it at -7 now; value’s still there.

Week 2 CFB Bets

Welp, did not get out of the gates well this season…

It started off fantastic! Even though Georgia Tech turned the ball over an unfathomable 3x in the opening 8mins, what I saw made me more confident than ever. The Jackets were on a different level than CU, just as I expected. If they played that game again, it would be a blowout. GT covered and we went into the weekend 1-0.

Maaaaaaaaaaaan did my next bet suck! The cocky play by tossing Bama in on ML to allow me to have Clemson at even money was dreadful. How bout those Seminoles?!? Holy moly! My bagel guy was spot-on, man. Lol but it wasn’t about that guy. It was all the insight he shared with me. This was a true FSU die hard (of which we have many around here) and he followed the guts of the Noles program like I do the Canes. His boys were confident this team was going to be different than last season. He couldn’t really explain why other than the QB from Boston College who he said was locked in. It was almost more a sense of the intangible. Check and check! Castellano is a bad MFer, and Florida State is one of the top teams in the ACC again. They’ll be a tough out every weekend. Yeah, this reflected the end of Bama being great just because they are Bama; but the story here was the rebound of a FSU squad that never stopped being loaded with talent. They have a lion under center now, a veteran, and I’m back to being nervous about facing them. Though let’s get this straight, they were the second best team in the ACC last week. ;-) Miami’s offensive line is so dominant that I don’t see any team who we can’t beat. Everything is ours to go get! Couldn’t be more excited. Just need to finally show that we can do it without beating ourselves.

The bet really about Clemson though. I don’t want to talk about Clemson. They Clemson’d again and I really don’t have a logical explanation for it. Almost everything looked off/bad. If that game was played on Playstation, I’d still want to be the home team. But it’s not, and the Geaux Tigers kicked their ass!! Congrats to LSU; I hadn’t written you off. This was a Clemson bet and I am quite embarassed by it. 1-1.

North Carolina. Ohh, North Carolina. Lol I am sorry, fam. Never bet on silly feels, and that’s what that was. Why were they going to win, I said? Because Billyboy is here, I said! Because he’ll pull rabbits out of hats, I said! As if Belichick himself would play as a spirit in a helmet. No; fake and ghey. They had no QB, lots of other holes. I knew this; everyone knew this. That line should have been TCU-10. What enticed me we saw on the opening sequence. The energy in there was electric! Carolina Blue rolled down that field and put up 7. TCU looked shell-shocked! I grinned from ear to ear thinking about writing this review… and then the rest of the game happened. If they play that game 10x, TCU wins at least 9 of them. I am truly sorry to anyone who tailed me. We will never clown bet again this season. 1-2.

So, we got a hole to dig out of, but you always gotta get back up off the canvas…

As I mentioned in the Week 1 spot, I spend a lot of time analyzing and talking about this sport and these matchups. But because we are now living Jetsons Lite, I use AI a lot too. Especially once I’ve selected the handful that have my eye for my own reasons. Then I bring in ALLLLLLL the information that the sharps used to only be privvy to, and let AI do it’s thing and flesh out my analysis. Fill in holes, bring in data, make sure my assumptions hold. It’s a fun new way to play old games! It really does eliminate the advantage of the big books. Of course, the odds are still stacked in favor of the house once you factor in vigs. The lights in Vegas are not paid by winners. I will paste my full AI review below for you to read. It’s pretty cool to have this digital nomad next to me; here, in law, when I shop or travel, everything! It IS my robot Jetsons assistant. It just can’t grab the beer (coffee), yet. ;-)

I’ll be rather simple on the picks explanation as you can see the guts on my final analysis below. I didn’t love-love anything this week except maybe the over, but I am no fan of over/under betting. I don’t “bet to bet” though, so these are ones I do believe have an edge. Let’s see if we can get ourselves back to breathing zone and then we’ll get the season back on track.

As mentioned, my top bet this week is the over (64.5 right now) on the total score in SMU/Baylor. We all know these teams play wide open and can score, but Baylor’s shit showing on D last week really makes this juicy to me. I’d be stunned if SMU doesn’t drop 35+ today. Lashlee runs nine million plays a game and he has skill guys. Will Baylor handle their side and get me 25-30? Yeah, I think odds are much higher than not. SMU doesn’t ball out on the defensive side. This will be a 35/35+ shoot-out. One I think SMU wins, btw, so that’s a decent bet too, especially at home. SMU is playing for a lot this season and they know it. I’ll take the over though; bought down to 64, which hopefully I can get at -110 before kickoff.

I’m really torn on how to bet the Iowa State game. I get too damn cute. I watched the Cyclones last week and they looked great! Pretty much performed every story we heard coming in. Not great competition though; I get it. Iowa is always a dagger in their side. I respect the shit out of this cornfed program. I always have. They never change their style. Iowa mans up and grinds you down. They are slow games with low scores. Physical! This season is no different. Iowa’s strength is their back. They will power run and play wall-style defense. If thet get a lead, you’re in trouble. For some reason, they play two levels up at home - always. But they’re not home. Iowa State’s fans will be on Mars!! I think their team clicks again, flashes even against Iowa’s defensive style, and they are too much for the Hawkeyes to handle. I hate having to cover points in a hard-nail game like this though. Same thinking that led to me combo’ing Bama last week… and I embarassed myself. So I’m not going to do it again. But man, I’d much rather have ISU just to win than -3. I’ll take the pts though and buy it to a FG at -120.

That’s it. ISU-3 (-120) and SMU/Baylor o64(-120 for fairness - if/when I lose higher vigs, I’ll factor that into the season standings, because 1-1 is never a break even). I think these both cash today and we’re back in the black heading into week 3. The other game that has my eye is USF going into The Swamp today. That will be their Superbowl! And they played a great game last week. But was Boise overrated? I can’t shake that. UF also has a ton to play for and they would love to embarass the baby bro from Tampa today. They won’t take their foot off the gas if they get ahead, and that scares my money away. But not my heart! If you can tease this to +25, I like it a lot. Fun game to have action on. Will be thrilling to watch as long as it stays tight.

Here are those robotics I promised….

NCAA Football Game Analysis - September 6, 2025

Below is a detailed breakdown of the five selected NCAA Football games, focusing on pre-season expectations, Week 1 performance, and Week 2 matchup dynamics. Each section includes the betting lines for reference, followed by a Pre-Season Historical Analysis, Week 1 Results with scores and fan reactions, and a Week 2 Matchup Analysis tailored to your betting preferences (Iowa State to win/cover or moneyline parlay, Baylor/SMU over, staying away from Illinois/Duke, USF +18/teased to +25, and Michigan/Oklahoma as a stay-away or points with Michigan).

Iowa @ Iowa State (9:05 AM)

• Spread: Iowa +3.5 / Iowa State -3.5

• Total: o/u 43

• M Line: Iowa +145 / Iowa State -165

Pre-Season Historical Analysis

• Iowa: Entering 2025, Iowa was expected to field a top-tier defense under Kirk Ferentz, with projections of 7.5-8 wins and a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten finish. The hype centered on a stout defense and a run-heavy offense led by RB Kaleb Johnson, but skepticism surrounded the passing game, even with new OC Tim Lester aiming to modernize the attack. Analysts questioned whether the offense could elevate Iowa beyond a 7-5 or 8-4 record, with some fans optimistic about a 10-win season if the passing improved. Fan sentiment was loyal but frustrated with offensive stagnation, with high expectations for defensive dominance.

• Iowa State: The Cyclones were a trendy breakout pick, ranked No. 22 in the preseason AP Poll, with projections of 8-9 wins as a Big 12 sleeper. Hype focused on QB Rocco Becht’s return after a solid 2024, a balanced offense with RB Carson Hansen, and a defense known for forcing turnovers. Fans were buzzing with excitement from a strong 2024 finish, though some analysts doubted their ability to handle physical teams like Iowa. The narrative positioned Iowa State as a potential conference contender, with momentum from a 10-win 2024 season.

Week 1 Results

• Iowa 34, Albany 7: Iowa dominated an FCS opponent, holding Albany to 7 points and rushing for over 150 yards, with Kaleb Johnson leading the charge. The defense was as advertised, stifling Albany’s offense, but the passing game struggled (under 150 yards), confirming pre-season skepticism about aerial efficiency. Fans were excited about the blowout but voiced concerns on X about the offense’s one-dimensional nature, with chatter praising the defense but frustrated with passing woes. The performance aligned with expectations but didn’t exceed them against weak opposition.

• Iowa State 55, South Dakota 7: Iowa State routed an FCS team, scoring over 30 points with a balanced attack (150+ rushing yards, 200+ passing yards). Becht showcased versatility, and the defense forced multiple turnovers, validating pre-season hype as a complete team. X posts were electric, with fans thrilled about offensive firepower and home dominance in Ames. However, the blowout against a weaker opponent slightly inflated perceptions, though the performance confirmed Iowa State’s potential.

Week 2 Matchup Analysis

Iowa State’s balanced offense gives them an edge at home, where they can exploit Iowa’s weaker secondary with Becht’s passing and Hansen’s running. Their defense, adept at forcing turnovers, could capitalize on Iowa’s predictable play-calling, aligning with your lean toward Iowa State to win and likely cover. Iowa’s defense, tougher than South Dakota’s, can slow Iowa State’s run game and pressure Becht, but their limited passing game may stall drives. Your inclination to include Iowa State in a moneyline parlay is supported by their Week 1 dominance and home-field advantage, but Iowa’s physicality suggests a close, low-scoring game, making the cover less certain. A moneyline bet feels safer than the spread, given Iowa’s ability to grind out games.

Baylor @ SMU (9:05 AM)

• Spread: Baylor +3 / SMU -3

• Total: o/u 64.5

• M Line: Baylor +120 / SMU -140

Pre-Season Historical Analysis

• Baylor: Baylor entered 2025 with tempered expectations under Dave Aranda, projected for 6-7 wins. The hype centered on a high-octane offense led by QB Sawyer Robertson (replacing Dequan Finn in earlier analyses) and new OC Jake Spavital, with a strong receiving corps and an improving run game. However, skepticism surrounded the defense, particularly its ability to stop explosive offenses. Fans were hopeful for a return to 2021’s success but concerned about defensive consistency, with bold predictions for a surprise season ranking around No. 44 nationally.

• SMU: SMU was a preseason darling, ranked No. 16-24 in the AP Poll, with projections of 9-10 wins in their second ACC year. Hype focused on QB Kevin Jennings and a dynamic, fast-paced offense under Rhett Lashlee, complemented by an opportunistic defense. Their first preseason ranking in 40 years fueled fan excitement, though some doubted their ability to handle physical teams. The narrative positioned SMU as an ACC title contender, with momentum from a strong 2024.

Week 1 Results

• Baylor 24, Auburn 38: Baylor’s offense showed flashes, amassing over 400 total yards with Robertson’s dual-threat play, confirming pre-season hype about their high-octane attack. However, the defense struggled, allowing over 300 rushing yards, aligning with skepticism about stopping explosive plays. X posts reflected fan disappointment, noting defensive woes despite offensive promise. The loss contradicted hopes for a surprise season but validated the offensive narrative, suggesting your view of Baylor’s high-scoring potential is current, not just based on past years.

• SMU 42, East Texas A&M 13: SMU dominated an FCS opponent, with Jennings leading a fast-paced attack (350+ passing yards, multiple TDs) and the defense securing two pick-sixes. The performance validated their offensive and defensive hype, with X chatter buzzing about their speed and scoring ability. While the blowout was against a weaker team, it reinforced SMU’s potential as a high-scoring unit, supporting your belief in their offensive prowess over any ACC bias.

Week 2 Matchup Analysis

SMU’s explosive offense, led by Jennings, could overwhelm Baylor’s inconsistent defense, especially given Baylor’s Week 1 struggles against the run. Their up-tempo style suits a high-scoring game, supporting your view that the over 64.5 is a strong play. Baylor’s offense, with Robertson and Spavital’s scheme, can keep pace by exploiting SMU’s secondary, but their defense needs unlikely stops to avoid a shootout. Your belief in the over is backed by both teams’ Week 1 offensive outputs, confirming Baylor’s 2025 high-octane scheme and SMU’s scoring ability. A teaser could hedge against defensive improvements, but the over feels solid given the matchup dynamics.

Illinois @ Duke (9:05 AM)

• Spread: Illinois -2.5 / Duke +2.5

• Total: o/u 49

• M Line: Illinois -135 / Duke +115

Pre-Season Historical Analysis

• Illinois: Illinois entered 2025 with high expectations under Bret Bielema, ranked No. 12 in the preseason AP Poll, with projections for a bowl-caliber season and potential CFP run. Hype centered on a dominant defense, particularly the front seven, and a run-heavy offense with QB Luke Altmyer and a rebuilt offensive line. Skepticism focused on the passing game’s ability to compete with elite Big Ten teams. Fans were cautiously optimistic, with buzz from their first top-25 ranking in 17 years, expecting a physical, gritty team.

• Duke: Under new coach Manny Diaz, Duke was expected to be well-coached and defense-first, with moderate projections for ACC surprises but talent limitations. Hype focused on discipline and QB Maalik Murphy’s development, with a decent run game but questions about passing consistency. Fans were hopeful but realistic about a smaller roster facing physical teams, projecting a mid-tier ACC finish.

Week 1 Results

• Illinois 52, Western Illinois 3: Illinois crushed an FCS opponent, with a dominant defense (under 300 yards allowed) and an efficient run game (150+ yards), confirming pre-season hype about their physicality. The passing game was modest, aligning with skepticism about aerial efficiency. X posts showed fan excitement for the blowout, but concerns lingered about one-dimensionality against stronger foes. The performance validated why Illinois is seen as good: Bielema’s tough, physical build.

• Duke 45, Elon 17: Duke overcame a sloppy first half (10-10 tie) to score 35 second-half points, with a gritty defense and Murphy’s big plays validating coaching hype. X chatter praised resilience but noted talent gaps, aligning with expectations of a well-coached but limited team. The win confirmed Diaz’s defensive identity but highlighted roster constraints against FCS competition.

Week 2 Matchup Analysis

Illinois’ physical run game and defensive front could dominate Duke’s smaller roster, with Week 1 suggesting they’ll pressure Murphy into mistakes. Duke’s disciplined defense might frustrate Illinois’ predictable offense, and Murphy’s big plays could keep it close. Your decision to stay away aligns with the matchup’s low-scoring, grind-it-out potential, where Illinois’ physicality likely prevails but Duke’s coaching keeps it competitive. This game lacks clear betting value due to its tight, unpredictable nature.

South Florida (USF) @ Florida (1:20 PM)

• Spread: USF +18 / Florida -18

• Total: o/u 57

• M Line: USF +615 / Florida -865

Pre-Season Historical Analysis

• USF: USF entered 2025 with growing optimism under Alex Golesh, ranked around No. 87, with projections as a Group of 5 standout aiming for 7+ wins. Hype centered on an up-tempo offense led by QB Byrum Brown, but skepticism surrounded the defense against Power 4 teams and overall discipline. Fans were excited about offensive potential but wary of a tough early schedule, with lofty bowl aspirations.

• Florida: Florida faced high expectations under Billy Napier, ranked No. 15, with 8-9 win projections as an SEC contender. Hype focused on offensive weapons, including QB DJ Lagway and a talented receiving corps, but questions lingered about the offensive line and defense. Fans were hopeful for a rebound after uneven years, though some saw the hype as overrated due to a grueling schedule.

Week 1 Results

• USF 34, No. 25 Boise State 7: USF pulled a stunning upset, with Brown rushing for two TDs and a fake punt TD, while the defense held Boise to 7 points. This exceeded offensive hype and suggested defensive legitimacy, countering pre-season skepticism. Boise struggled with turnovers and a poor run defense, but USF’s dominance was notable, not just opponent failure. X posts exploded with excitement, marking it as USF’s first ranked win since 2016.

• Florida 55, Long Island 0: Florida dominated an FCS team, with Lagway throwing three TDs and RB Montrell Baugh rushing for 104 yards. The offense aligned with hype, but the defense’s solidity against weak opposition didn’t fully address pre-season concerns. X chatter was enthusiastic about the offensive fireworks, but fans remained cautious about defensive consistency.

Week 2 Matchup Analysis

Florida’s talent edge, especially at skill positions, could overwhelm USF’s defense in the Swamp, with Lagway likely exploiting the secondary for a potential blowout. USF’s up-tempo offense, shown potent in Week 1, could exploit Florida’s defensive inconsistencies, and their “Super Bowl” effort in this game supports your view of USF +18, especially teased to +25. Your preference to watch as a fan rather than bet is prudent given Florida’s blowout potential, but the teaser is a strong play if you want action, as USF’s legitimacy suggests they can keep it closer than expected.

Michigan @ Oklahoma (4:35 PM)

• Spread: Michigan +5 / Oklahoma -5

• Total: o/u 44

• M Line: Michigan +175 / Oklahoma -205

Pre-Season Historical Analysis

• Michigan: Michigan entered 2025 with high expectations under Sherrone Moore, ranked No. 11-14, projecting 9-10 wins. Hype centered on an elite defense and run-heavy offense, but skepticism surrounded the passing game and roster turnover after 2024 NFL departures. The roster, while stacked with four-star talent, had fewer five-stars than prior years. Fans expected a top Big Ten finish but were nervous about the new QB (Bryce Underwood, No. 1 2025 recruit).

• Oklahoma: Oklahoma was hyped as a resurgent SEC team under Brent Venables, ranked No. 18, with 8-9 win projections. The focus was on QB John Mateer, an explosive offense with a strong receiving corps, and a physical defense, though depth concerns persisted. Fans were optimistic, with bold predictions for an SEC surprise, building on 2024’s momentum.

Week 1 Results

• Michigan 34, New Mexico 17: Michigan won convincingly, with freshman QB Bryce Underwood shining (392 passing yards, 3 TDs) and RB Justice Haynes rushing effectively. The offense exceeded expectations, countering passing game skepticism, but the defense allowed some yards, raising slight concerns. X posts showed fan excitement for Underwood but wariness about defensive lapses, with the roster’s depth still elite despite turnover.

• Oklahoma 35, Illinois State 3: Oklahoma dominated an FCS opponent, with Mateer setting passing records (392 yards) and the defense stifling the opposition. The performance validated offensive and defensive hype, though the weak opponent tempered some enthusiasm. X chatter praised Mateer’s breakout, with fans pumped for the SEC transition.

Week 2 Matchup Analysis

Oklahoma’s home advantage and explosive offense, led by Mateer, could test Michigan’s secondary, while their physical defense challenges Michigan’s run game. Michigan’s elite defense can pressure Mateer, and their ground attack might control the clock, but passing limitations could hinder comebacks. Your instinct to stay away or take points with Michigan is wise—this game is a toss-up, with both teams showing enough talent in Week 1 to make it unpredictable. Michigan’s road challenge in Norman makes the points tempting, but staying away aligns with the high variance, as X posts suggest a close contest.

Week 1 CFB Bets

College football is back!! This is my happy place.

I want to start sharing more of the real-me aspects through this digital-me, until one day those walls will come down. I feel the same way about wanting to discuss legal issues in an audio format. I just don’t feel comfortable doing that yet, but can’t wait for the freedom! I have so many exciting things in mind once there. There are few things in life I am more passionate about than this sport. I am a Hurricane and so is my wife. We met there and went to school at the same time as the greatest team that ever played. I’ve followed the sport religiously since long before I was part of it. As a kid, it was largely a Sunday thing. Eagles were my squad and I loved football so much that I had my parents get me a tiny 1980s color TV with a giant fold-out antennae so I could catch games while we were out. I got dropped off at Pettibone’s to watch their satellite dish of all the games while gorging on a filet mignon buffet. I’m doing this at like 12 years-old. But part of the curriculum in Coral Gables is lifelong brainwashing into The U brotherhood. My life has been colored Orange and Green ever since. Those who love sports to the same level I do would probably enjoy this piece below. I’m going to work on Part II soon.

https://theojordan.substack.com/p/the-transcendence-of-sports

I love the games so much that I even love the games within the games. I play lots of fantasy and have followed sports lines since they were truly books. The world of sharps and setting lines was always fascinating to me. It truly is (was?) a science. They could land total basketball game scores within a few points, and do it consistently. The tools and analysis that went into that all in the Beforetimes when we didn’t all have access to information and still read stats in newspaper columns is just incredible! Of course, the world has completely changed now. The era of daily fantasy and AI searching. Moneylines shown on broadcasts and the ability to place prop bets on your phone. Crazy! But my love for the seedy underworld of sports has remained too. And that’s the nature of this place…

I’ve talked lines and sports bets with a group of buddies for decades now. A couple have lives that are connected to actual books; others are just weekend watchers who enjoy having a piece of action and the chatter which surrounds it. None of my close network gamble for anything other than fun. None of us are good enough. Lol never trust a gambler who isn’t humble!  ;-) But some can do good on some seasons, and we manage to have a blast throughout everyone. It’s well worth the expense to me on entertainment value alone. As long as you have self-control. Gambling is a top unspoken crisis in our country right now. It is spreading everywhere! For better or for worse. But this ain’t the place for that tale!

What I want to do on Smoke Signals each week is offer a few thoughts on bets I like around the CFB slate. I’ll try and post it every week by Thursday morning, even if I’m not taking any early games. This isn’t some gimmick or some attempt to draw you into a paid-pick racket. I just love the sport, love the lines, love watching how they end, and truly enjoy all the discussion around it. I’m doing it here because I intend to fire this website back up now that I got my IRL stabilized after quite a professional cannonball last year. I envision this place becoming more active and want to use this domain to help bring down those digital/real walls. I’ll be posting my batch of top games each week and then tracking how we do at year’s end. I don’t claim to be an expert, so don’t tail me choices like I’m giving you secret knowledge. I am surely not. I’m sharing with you the top chatter each week and what I happen to think is going to cash. I’ll give my reasons why too as I rarely bet with my heart. I’d love to have you join in the discussion; that’s really my objective here, not to try and show off as some guru. I’d be eager to know what lines have your eye each week. I might even tail! To do that, I’ll drop a link to X under each one if you want to comment or add your own picks. If you convince me on any, I’ll add reference back here. Let’s do this…

It's a hell of a slate to kick things off! The games started last night with a ton of action. The bet that had most eyes was Wyoming, bouncing between -6 and -7. It ended up cashing, but I passed. A bet that only hits because of a 35yd TD pass with 4mins left is not one I need to be on. 10-0 on a TD spread is pretty rough; but hey, a cash is a cash! The pros had that one right.

I do like one tonight. I think the Yellow Jackets go up to Colorado and handle business pretty easily. GT should be solid this year. They return a legit QB, a couple strong skill players, a serviceable defense, and have abandoned their old archaic ways. But they still have a culture of being able to grind you down and control the clock once they’re ahead. I think that’s exactly what happens. On the other side, CU is just replacing too much. I’m not sure the were a very good team last year, and they didn’t reload what they lost. Take GT and buy it down to -3 as long as you’re not getting killed on the vig.

I’m high on Clemson this year. They return more veteran starting talent than anyone in the country and have all the parts. They’ve disappointed recently, but you can’t buy new tickets with old teams. On paper, this is a really good squad! I’m not sold that LSU is. Could they be? Sure. But there are a lot of moving parts in the other Death Valley. Add in the home field advantage and I like Clemson here a lot. But I don’t like them covering -4 and I don’t want to risk almost 2x money on a game they could certainly lose. So I’ll do what I often do and go unorthodox. I’ll pair the Clemson ML with the Bama ML and get Clemson to just win at almost regular cost. I don’t see Alabama losing that football game, even at Doak Campbell. This gets me a moneyline Clemson bet without the ML price.

Regarding Bama, most of my friends are taking the Tide-14. I get it. I was kind of sold on that too… until I had a conversation with a FSU die hard this morning over bagels. Lol do I still think there is a good chance Bama covers 2TDs? Yes. But not enough to get behind it. I don’t like covering big spreads as a practice, and FSU is going to have a bounce back eventually - that’s a when and not an if. I’d be stunned if they beat Alabama as I still think the Seminoles are going to have a lot of issues this year. But he talked me off getting behind the big line.

Lastly, and I may live to regret this one, I’m taking UNC at home on Monday night. This isn’t a bet against TCU as I think they’ll be decent this year. I wouldn’t bet it if the game had been in Texas. But Chapel Hill can get pretty gnarly when they’re excited, and the debut of Bill Belichick is going to have them rocking! I expect the Tarheels to play really amped up, feed off the crowd, and I think this brilliant football mind will pull out all the stops and tricks needed to make sure his first step in Carolina Blue is a good one. I would not want to travel there for this opener. I actually think UNC wins outright, but I’ll take the points instead of 1.5x money. It looks like you can still buy it to +4 at cost. I’ll take that!

Of course, my eyes will be fixed most on The Hard Rock this weekend. Catholics vs. Convicts 2025! The last time a top ten Notre Dame team came down to that place to face the Canes, this happened…

https://youtu.be/cRpyl_Up6Ro

I’ll be hoping for the same, but I won’t have any action on this game. Too much heart involved for me to see clearly there. Sadly, I think some holes in the Miami LB corps and secondary will be exposed this season and that could start Sunday. Game could go either way, but I’m jittery. Rarely do I bet on my squad, and this certainly won’t be one of those weeks. I hope we woodshed them again! The other big one is Texas and OSU, of course. That’s a coin flip all day to me. Would never want action on that game. I’ll take that one in happily as a fan.

WEEK 1 PICKS:

Georgia Tech-3 (-120)

Clemson ML/Alabama ML parlay (-115)

UNC+4 (-120)

Just those three this week. Though for what it’s worth, a Clemson ML/GT ML/Bama-13.5/UNC+4 parlay pays almost 7x. Lots of action for low entry and a shot at landing bankroll for the season start.

YTD 0-0. Fresh slate. Let’s go!!!

Join the discussion and share your thoughts on this week’s action:

https://x.com/Theo_TJ_Jordan/status/1961528994307936759