Week 4 CFB Bets
Once again, I failed to deliver these timely. One day (soon) we’ll have a half week’s worth of chatter heading into the noon kickoff. Maybe we’ll even get a Friday podcast show going around CFB alone. I know there’s a bunch of you out there! This gridiron is my passion.
Came into the week 2-2…
Clemson. OMG. I don’t even want to talk about it. I am so sorry. They are dead to me and I have failed both you and myself. Never again. There is a reason “Clemson” became a verb,
LSU made minced-meat out of an imploding UF program, as I knew they would. The Gators came out quick and but-for a penalty would have had a 10-0 lead. Maybe a different game? Probably not. The Gators stink. Good luck today! ;-)
So we split another week and stand at Even Steven for the year. Of course, with vigs we are not at all even and that sucks. So I’m going to bet smart this week…
There were only two lines that drew me in. One is SMU getting a TD on the road at TCU, and the other is OU having to cover a TD at home vs War Eagle. I’ll post my final AI analytics below, but I talked myself out of the second one. I’m going to go Charmin this week and just play the one line I believe in. I want us back in the black!! I’ll give a couple suggestions to play with it though…
SMU is a legit squad. I love their coach, their scheme, and they have skill players. I’m not sold that TCU is legit and that UNC wasn’t just really really bad that night. Maybe not, but I have this game as a coin flip. Give me a TD and I’ll take that all day!
I think OU beats Auburn at home. I think they likely cover 7 (or 6.5 right now). But it’s too close to a 50/50 for me at a -TD and I don’t bet coin flips. A couple other ways to play this…
SMU is getting over 2x on the ML. I’d be inclined to play that instead of the +7 if I wasn’t operating in the red. I’m going conservative this week because I don’t want to dig deeper. But I think the savvy bet here is the ML. They’re going to win even on the road. TCU won’t hold back that tempo for 4 quarters and SMU is angry AF after that double-OT loss to Baylor.
Another bet I like is teasing SMU/OU. You’d likely get SMU+14/OU to win. That’s a great bet! Comes with a -120 or -130 vig though and there’s just too high a chance Auburn pulls out the W for me. So I’ll stay away from Norman and watch that as a fan.
Just one this week. SMU+7 (I locked it in on Wednesday). 2-2 and time to get healthy again.
Let me know what games have your eye here:
https://x.com/Theo_TJ_Jordan/status/1969425024550371754
Outside of the sportsbook, my eyes will be on Coral Gables, of course. What an electric environment there this morning for Gameday!! Not a friendly crowd either. Lol Orange and Blue is in big big trouble tonight at The Hard Rock. I don’t see them being able to handle either one of our lines, and Carson should be able to operately comfortably. They are tailspinning and we would love nothing more than to stomp on that program’s throat in front of the nation. I expect it to get ugly. I think we terminate their coach tonight. I think Miami likely covers 10, but that’s too many points for my blood in this rivalry. GO CANES
SMU @ TCU (12:00 PM ET, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX)
Spread: TCU -7 (-110), SMU +7 (-110)
Moneyline: TCU -262, SMU +212
Over/Under: 62.5 (-110/-110)
Matchup Analysis This game pits SMU’s high-octane spread offense against TCU’s balanced attack in a potential shootout. SMU, 1-1, is reeling from a 48-45 double-OT loss to Baylor, where Kevin Jennings threw for 350 yards and 3 TDs, and Brashard Harden ran for 115 with 3 scores, averaging 36.5 PPG over 80-plus plays. Their Week 1 42-13 FCS win and Week 2 28-10 grind over Missouri State (350 yards) show offensive firepower, but a 601-yard leak against Baylor highlights a 31 PPG defense. TCU, 2-0, opened with a 48-14 UNC rout (542 yards, Hoover 280/2 TDs, 2 pick-sixes), but Weeks 2 and 3 (42-21, 31-24) settled at 410-480 yards with 3.5-4.2 YPC allowed, suggesting UNC was a fluke. Expect SMU to push pace early, Jennings targeting 250-300 yards and Harden 80-100 with 1-2 TDs if the line holds, exploiting TCU’s injured secondary. TCU counters with Hoover’s 280-yard potential and a 4.8 YPC run (150-200 yards), leaning on defense to force 1-2 turnovers and limit SMU under 30. If TCU’s D falters, SMU could hit 35-40. Sims project 27-24 TCU, a 3-point margin—your +7 lean covers, and the moneyline (+212, over 2x) tempts if you’re feeling bold, though +7’s safer at -110.
Trends SMU’s offense trends up (36.5 PPG), with a leaky D (31 PPG) a concern. TCU’s offense steadies (22 PPG allowed), but UNC’s 2.1 YPC win fades—EPA/play dropped from +2.1 to +0.8. X buzz splits, Herbstreit backs TCU’s line, Mandel sees SMU +7 (65% cover), betting’s 62% on TCU -7, overs hot (7/10 H2H).
Fan Chatter X is a tug-of-war—TCU fans push “Skillet reclamation” (35-28 picks), SMU backers bet on Lashlee’s pace gassing TCU. Fans note SMU’s anger post-Baylor, TCU’s home edge.
Intangibles SMU’s revenge fire (3-0 H2H) and season-save urgency face TCU’s Skillet momentum and 47,000-strong crowd. Clear 82°F keeps it neutral—tempo and heart decide.
Injuries, Upstarts, Disappointing Players SMU’s Hudson’s out (elbow), but Cooper (68 yards) and Singleton (3 TDs) shine. TCU’s Helm/Glover are out, Small (2 TDs) steps up. Disappointing: TCU’s D turnover drop, SMU’s secondary leaks.
Auburn @ Oklahoma (3:30 PM ET, Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK)
Spread: Oklahoma -6.5 (-110), Auburn +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Oklahoma -240, Auburn +195
Over/Under: 48.5 (-110/-110)
Matchup Analysis This SEC opener pits Oklahoma’s surging 3-0 form against Auburn’s gritty 3-0 start in a physical slugfest. OU’s 101-19 differential features John Mateer’s 944 passing yards and 161 rushing with 9 TDs, backed by a top-5 D at 6 PPG—Week 3’s 24-13 Michigan win (270/74, 4 sacks) showed their edge. Auburn’s 111-42, driven by Jackson Arnold’s 501-yard Baylor game (192 rush, 4 TDs each) and 242 rushing yards/game, but soft foes (Ball State, South Alabama) mask flaws—6 sacks and 250 air yards leaked. OU’s D will key on Arnold, using Venables’ blitz knowledge to pressure his 6-sack frame for 3-4 sacks, forcing quick throws to a 122nd pass D—Mateer’s dual-threat could hit 250-300 yards, Burks 100-plus, run grinding 150-200 to control pace. Auburn counters with Hunter and Cobb (Baugh doubtful, ankle) for 200-plus rush yards, aiming to shorten the game—Arnold’s 300 total and 2 TDs are possible if OL steadies. OU’s D could hold Auburn under 20, but Auburn’s run might keep it 24-17. Sims project 27-20 OU, a 7-point margin—your -6.5 lean’s tight, teasing to -0.5 with SMU +14 is smart if pairing.
Trends OU’s 33.7 PPG (top-20) and 6 PPG D (top-5) trend up, Mateer’s 3 INTs a hiccup. Auburn’s 37 PPG (top-15) and 20 PPG D trend solid, but 6 sacks and 250 air yards leak vs. elites. X flips Auburn’s hype, experts see OU’s edge, betting’s 68% on -6.5, unders at 47. Michigan’s 24-13 loss showed OU’s dominance (60% pressure).
Fan Chatter X crows “Mateer Heisman arc” for OU, debates “Arnold revenge” for Auburn. Fans hype OU’s Zoo, Auburn’s 3-0 streak.
Intangibles OU’s Zoo (80,000, 9-2 ATS September) and SEC buzz face Auburn’s hungry streak—first road test, Norman’s a beast, clear 78°F neutral.
Injuries, Upstarts, Disappointing Players OU’s Washington suspended half, Burks blooms; Auburn’s Baugh doubtful, 8 OL nicks, Simmons (78 yards, TD) and Cobb shine. Disappointing: Auburn’s Pleasant underused, Arnold’s sack woes.
That’s the rundown—SMU +7’s a tempo play with upside on the moneyline, OU -6.5’s a streak bet with teaser value.